União Rondonópolis 3–0 Interporto: Result & Stats

União Rondonópolis

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Interporto

7/23/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

União Rondonópolis80%

×Draw14%

Interporto7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União RondonópolisExpected goals in this matchInterporto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.61

União Rondonópolis

2.60

Interporto

0.61

União Rondonópolis creates 326% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

1.36

creates per match

0.23

1.00

allows per match

3.85

creates per match

União Rondonópolis

1.36

Interporto

0.23

allows per match

União Rondonópolis

1.00

Interporto

3.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par

Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Rondonópolis ↓

Interporto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

União Rondonópolis or draw

93%

União Rondonópolis or Interporto

86%

Draw or Interporto

20%

Winning margin

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+

58%

Interporto wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals

92%

União Rondonópolis 2+ goals

73%

União Rondonópolis 3+ goals

47%

Interporto 1+ goals

46%

Interporto 2+ goals

13%

Interporto 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)

92%

Interporto (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Rondonópolis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Rondonópolis attack 1.36 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.60

Interporto attack 0.23 + União Rondonópolis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

União Rondonópolis scores more

80%

level

14%

Interporto scores more

7%

União Rondonópolis at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "União Rondonópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff