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União PR vs Verê — Paranaense - 2 2020

União PR
União PR
FT
1 – 1
Verê
Verê
8/28/2021Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Anilado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União PR50%
×Draw27%
Verê23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União PR
1.40
Verê
0.85

União PR creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

União PR
1.29
Verê
0.70

allows per match

União PR
1.00
Verê
1.50

finishing

União PR+0.00on par
Verê+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União PR ↓

Verê →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

União PR or draw
77%
União PR or Verê
73%
Draw or Verê
50%

Winning margin

União PR wins by 2+
24%
Verê wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

União PR 1+ goals
75%
União PR 2+ goals
41%
União PR 3+ goals
17%
Verê 1+ goals
57%
Verê 2+ goals
21%
Verê 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

União PR (draw refunded)
69%
Verê (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União PR at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Verê away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União PR attack 1.29 + Verê defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Verê attack 0.70 + União PR defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

União PR scores more
50%
level
27%
Verê scores more
23%

União PR at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "União PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União PR vs Verê

União PR and Verê drew 1-1 in Paranaense - 2 on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Anilado in Francisco Beltrão, Paraná.