União PR 0–0 Araucária: Result & Stats

União PR

FT

0 – 0

Araucária

9/15/2021

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Anilado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União PR57%

×Draw23%

Araucária20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União PRExpected goals in this matchAraucária

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.96

União PR

1.78

Araucária

0.96

União PR creates 85% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

1.29

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

União PR

1.29

Araucária

0.91

allows per match

União PR

1.00

Araucária

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União PR+0.00on par

Araucária+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União PR ↓

Araucária →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

União PR or draw

80%

União PR or Araucária

77%

Draw or Araucária

43%

Winning margin

União PR wins by 2+

32%

Araucária wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

União PR 1+ goals

83%

União PR 2+ goals

53%

União PR 3+ goals

26%

Araucária 1+ goals

62%

Araucária 2+ goals

25%

Araucária 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

União PR (draw refunded)

74%

Araucária (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União PR at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Araucária away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União PR attack 1.29 + Araucária defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

Araucária attack 0.91 + União PR defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

União PR scores more

57%

level

23%

Araucária scores more

20%

União PR at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "União PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff