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Uniao Luziense vs North Esporte — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uniao Luziense
Uniao Luziense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
North Esporte
North Esporte
Thainler 90+2'
W. Da Silva 21'
5/11/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 3Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Uniao Luziense34%
×Draw33%
North Esporte33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Luziense
0.89
North Esporte
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Uniao Luziense
0.88
North Esporte
0.76

allows per match

Uniao Luziense
1.00
North Esporte
0.90

finishing

Uniao Luziense+0.00on par
North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 74Over: 2674%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Luziense ↓

North Esporte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Uniao Luziense or draw
67%
Uniao Luziense or North Esporte
67%
Draw or North Esporte
66%

Winning margin

Uniao Luziense wins by 2+
12%
North Esporte wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Uniao Luziense 1+ goals
59%
Uniao Luziense 2+ goals
22%
Uniao Luziense 3+ goals
6%
North Esporte 1+ goals
59%
North Esporte 2+ goals
22%
North Esporte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)
50%
North Esporte (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Luziense at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Luziense attack 0.88 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

North Esporte attack 0.76 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Uniao Luziense scores more
34%
level
33%
North Esporte scores more
33%

Uniao Luziense at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Uniao Luziense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
W. Da Silva
70'
Matheus Silva
90+2'
Thainler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Uniao Luziense 1–1 North Esporte

Uniao Luziense and North Esporte drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 11, 2023.

Goals: W. Da Silva (21'), Thainler (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito in Santa Luzia, Minas Gerais.