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Uniao Luziense vs Nacional AC MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uniao Luziense
Uniao Luziense
FT
1 – 1
Nacional AC MG
Nacional AC MG
8/14/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 9Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Uniao Luziense34%
×Draw31%
Nacional AC MG35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Luziense
1.00
Nacional AC MG
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Uniao Luziense
0.88
Nacional AC MG
1.03

allows per match

Uniao Luziense
1.00
Nacional AC MG
1.12

finishing

Uniao Luziense+0.00on par
Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Luziense ↓

Nacional AC MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Uniao Luziense or draw
65%
Uniao Luziense or Nacional AC MG
69%
Draw or Nacional AC MG
66%

Winning margin

Uniao Luziense wins by 2+
13%
Nacional AC MG wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Uniao Luziense 1+ goals
63%
Uniao Luziense 2+ goals
26%
Uniao Luziense 3+ goals
8%
Nacional AC MG 1+ goals
64%
Nacional AC MG 2+ goals
27%
Nacional AC MG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)
49%
Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Luziense at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Luziense attack 0.88 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Uniao Luziense scores more
34%
level
31%
Nacional AC MG scores more
35%

Nacional AC MG at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nacional AC MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uniao Luziense vs Nacional AC MG

Uniao Luziense and Nacional AC MG drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito in Santa Luzia, Minas Gerais.