Uniao Luziense 1–0 Democrata SL: Result & Stats

Uniao Luziense

FT

1 – 0

Democrata SL

5/21/2022

Mineiro - 2 · Round 6Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Uniao Luziense33%

×Draw32%

Democrata SL35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniao LuzienseExpected goals in this matchDemocrata SL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.98

Uniao Luziense

0.93

Democrata SL

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 40 away

0.88

creates per match

0.97

1.00

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Uniao Luziense

0.88

Democrata SL

0.97

allows per match

Uniao Luziense

1.00

Democrata SL

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniao Luziense+0.00on par

Democrata SL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Luziense ↓

Democrata SL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Uniao Luziense or draw

65%

Uniao Luziense or Democrata SL

68%

Draw or Democrata SL

67%

Winning margin

Uniao Luziense wins by 2+

12%

Democrata SL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Uniao Luziense 1+ goals

61%

Uniao Luziense 2+ goals

24%

Uniao Luziense 3+ goals

7%

Democrata SL 1+ goals

62%

Democrata SL 2+ goals

26%

Democrata SL 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)

48%

Democrata SL (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Luziense at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Democrata SL away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Luziense attack 0.88 + Democrata SL defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Democrata SL attack 0.97 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Uniao Luziense scores more

33%

level

32%

Democrata SL scores more

35%

Democrata SL at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff