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União Idanhense vs SC Covilha — Taça de Portugal 2018

União Idanhense
União Idanhense
FT
0 – 2
SC Covilha
SC Covilha
D. Silva 90+4'
Helitao 11'
9/25/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Idanha-a-Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

União Idanhense8%
×Draw14%
SC Covilha78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Idanhense
0.77
SC Covilha
2.70

SC Covilha creates 251% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

União Idanhense
0.33
SC Covilha
1.40

allows per match

União Idanhense
4.00
SC Covilha
1.20

finishing

União Idanhense+0.00on par
SC Covilha+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Idanhense ↓

SC Covilha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

União Idanhense or draw
22%
União Idanhense or SC Covilha
86%
Draw or SC Covilha
92%

Winning margin

União Idanhense wins by 2+
2%
SC Covilha wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

União Idanhense 1+ goals
54%
União Idanhense 2+ goals
18%
União Idanhense 3+ goals
4%
SC Covilha 1+ goals
93%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
75%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

União Idanhense (draw refunded)
10%
SC Covilha (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Idanhense at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

SC Covilha away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Idanhense attack 0.33 + SC Covilha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

SC Covilha attack 1.40 + União Idanhense defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

União Idanhense scores more
8%
level
14%
SC Covilha scores more
78%

SC Covilha at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "SC Covilha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Helitao
90+4'
D. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: União Idanhense 0–2 SC Covilha

SC Covilha beat União Idanhense 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 25, 2021.

Goals: Helitao (11'), D. Silva (90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Idanha-a-Nova in Idanha a Nova.