União de Tomar 1–2 Pêro Pinheiro: Result & Stats

União de Tomar

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pêro Pinheiro

Quim Ze 27'

Unknown 67'

M. Lourenco 25'

9/24/2023

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Tomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

União de Tomar37%

×Draw20%

Pêro Pinheiro43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de TomarExpected goals in this matchPêro Pinheiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.17

União de Tomar

2.00

Pêro Pinheiro

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

2.67

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

União de Tomar

1.00

Pêro Pinheiro

1.67

allows per match

União de Tomar

2.67

Pêro Pinheiro

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Tomar+0.00on par

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Tomar ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

União de Tomar or draw

57%

União de Tomar or Pêro Pinheiro

80%

Draw or Pêro Pinheiro

63%

Winning margin

União de Tomar wins by 2+

20%

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

União de Tomar 1+ goals

86%

União de Tomar 2+ goals

59%

União de Tomar 3+ goals

32%

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

89%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

64%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

União de Tomar (draw refunded)

46%

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

União de Tomar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

União de Tomar attack 1.00 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.67 + União de Tomar defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

União de Tomar scores more

37%

level

20%

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

43%

Pêro Pinheiro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pêro Pinheiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

M. Lourenco

27'

Quim Ze

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff