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União de Malanje vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

União de Malanje
União de Malanje
FT
0 – 4
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
4/20/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 21Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

União de Malanje41%
×Draw29%
Recreativo do Libolo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Malanje
1.17
Recreativo do Libolo
0.96

União de Malanje creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

creates per match

União de Malanje
1.00
Recreativo do Libolo
0.72

allows per match

União de Malanje
1.21
Recreativo do Libolo
1.34

finishing

União de Malanje+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Malanje ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

União de Malanje or draw
70%
União de Malanje or Recreativo do Libolo
71%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
59%

Winning margin

União de Malanje wins by 2+
17%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

União de Malanje 1+ goals
69%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
33%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
11%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
62%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
25%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

União de Malanje (draw refunded)
58%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Malanje at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Malanje attack 1.00 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + União de Malanje defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

União de Malanje scores more
41%
level
29%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
30%

União de Malanje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "União de Malanje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: União de Malanje 0–4 Recreativo do Libolo

Recreativo do Libolo beat União de Malanje 4-0 in Girabola on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.