União de Malanje 1–2 Bravos do Maquis FC

União de Malanje

FT

1 – 2

Bravos do Maquis FC

2/17/2024

Girabola · Round 13Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

União de Malanje34%

×Draw30%

Bravos do Maquis FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de MalanjeExpected goals in this matchBravos do Maquis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.08

União de Malanje

1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 106 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.21

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

União de Malanje

1.00

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.95

allows per match

União de Malanje

1.21

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Malanje+0.00on par

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Malanje ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

União de Malanje or draw

64%

União de Malanje or Bravos do Maquis FC

70%

Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC

66%

Winning margin

União de Malanje wins by 2+

13%

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

União de Malanje 1+ goals

65%

União de Malanje 2+ goals

28%

União de Malanje 3+ goals

9%

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

66%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

29%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

União de Malanje (draw refunded)

49%

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Malanje at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Malanje attack 1.00 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + União de Malanje defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

União de Malanje scores more

34%

level

30%

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

36%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff