União de Leiria vs Sporting CP B

União de Leiria

Preview

16:00

Sporting CP B

11/15/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 11

Big match

44%

União de Leiria

model favours

44%27%30%

União de Leiria have won 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

União de Leiria44%

×Draw27%

Sporting CP B30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de LeiriaExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.11

União de Leiria

1.41

Sporting CP B

1.11

União de Leiria creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 26 away

1.47

creates per match

0.96

1.27

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

União de Leiria

1.47

Sporting CP B

0.96

allows per match

União de Leiria

1.27

Sporting CP B

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw

70%

União de Leiria or Sporting CP B

73%

Draw or Sporting CP B

56%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+

21%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals

76%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

41%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

17%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

67%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

30%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

60%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.47 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + União de Leiria defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

União de Leiria scores more

44%

level

27%

Sporting CP B scores more

30%

União de Leiria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

União de Leiria

Balanced

Sporting CP B

Balanced

51%Possession55%

82%Pass accuracy82%

9.0ShotsBiggest gap10.2

—xG—

União de LeiriaSporting CP B

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

5

União de Leiria

0

Draws

1

Sporting CP B

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 33%

3–10–11–01–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Leiria

WLDL

B

DLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff