Sporting CP B 0–1 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

União de Leiria

Jair da Silva 74'

2/18/2023

Liga 3 · Round 19CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B36%

×Draw27%

União de Leiria37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

Sporting CP B

1.22

União de Leiria

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 29 away

1.47

creates per match

1.55

0.95

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

União de Leiria

1.55

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

União de Leiria

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

63%

Sporting CP B or União de Leiria

73%

Draw or União de Leiria

64%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

15%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

70%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

34%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

12%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

71%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

36%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

49%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.22

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

36%

level

27%

União de Leiria scores more

37%

União de Leiria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

J. Alcantar

25'

M. Amissi← J. van der Gaag

31'

J. Silva

46'

Vasco Oliveira← Dénis Martins

65'

F. Canario

66'

Afonso Valente← Leandro Silva

66'

Gonçalo Gregório← Leandro Antunes

69'

Rodrigo Marquês← Diogo Cabral

72'

A. Moreira

74'

Jair da Silva

75'

Rodrigo Ribeiro← Francisco Canário

78'

Diogo Amado← Gonçalo Batalha

83'

Joelson Fernandes← Samuel Justo

Sporting

União

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

69'▲Rodrigo Marquês←▼Diogo Cabral

75'▲Rodrigo Ribeiro←▼Francisco Canário

83'▲Joelson Fernandes←▼Samuel Justo

Sporting CP B substitutes

MarquêsRibeiroFernandes

Manager: Vasco Costa

25'▲M. Amissi←▼J. van der Gaag

46'▲Vasco Oliveira←▼Dénis Martins

66'▲Afonso Valente←▼Leandro Silva

66'▲Gonçalo Gregório←▼Leandro Antunes

78'▲Diogo Amado←▼Gonçalo Batalha

União de Leiria substitutes

AmissiOliveiraValenteGregórioAmado