União de Leiria 1–0 Portimonense: Result & Stats

União de Leiria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portimonense

Alisson Santos 56'

1/26/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 19Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

União de Leiria46%

×Draw26%

Portimonense28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de LeiriaExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

União de Leiria

1.48

Portimonense

1.11

União de Leiria creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

0.95

1.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

União de Leiria

1.47

Portimonense

0.95

allows per match

União de Leiria

1.27

Portimonense

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw

72%

União de Leiria or Portimonense

74%

Draw or Portimonense

54%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+

23%

Portimonense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals

77%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

43%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

19%

Portimonense 1+ goals

67%

Portimonense 2+ goals

30%

Portimonense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

62%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.47 + Portimonense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Portimonense attack 0.95 + União de Leiria defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

União de Leiria scores more

46%

level

26%

Portimonense scores more

28%

União de Leiria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Habib Sylla

56'

Alisson Santos

65'

J. Alegría← Chico Banza

66'

66'

70'

79'

81'

Juan Muñoz← Daniel dos Anjos

81'

Jair da Silva← J. van der Gaag

81'

João Resende← Alisson Santos

83'

Víctor Rofino← H. Sylla

84'

Diogo Ferreira← Ruan

84'

E. Benedict← Tamble Monteiro

90'

Jair da Silva

90'

Keffel

Shots

Statistics

UniãoPortimonense

Overview

1Total Shots0

1Fouls0

Shots

1Total Shots0

1On Target0

Discipline

1Fouls0