União de Leiria 0–0 Leixoes: Result & Stats

União de Leiria

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leixoes

11/18/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 11Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

União de Leiria42%

×Draw27%

Leixoes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de LeiriaExpected goals in this matchLeixoes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

União de Leiria

1.39

Leixoes

1.15

União de Leiria creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 132 away

1.47

creates per match

1.02

1.27

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

União de Leiria

1.47

Leixoes

1.02

allows per match

União de Leiria

1.27

Leixoes

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Leixoes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw

69%

União de Leiria or Leixoes

73%

Draw or Leixoes

58%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+

20%

Leixoes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals

75%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

40%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

16%

Leixoes 1+ goals

68%

Leixoes 2+ goals

32%

Leixoes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

58%

Leixoes (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Leixoes away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.30 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.47 + Leixoes defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Leixoes attack 1.02 + União de Leiria defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

União de Leiria scores more

42%

level

27%

Leixoes scores more

31%

União de Leiria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff