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Leixoes vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Leixoes
Leixoes
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
3/8/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 25Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Leixoes33%
×Draw27%
União de Leiria39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leixoes
1.15
União de Leiria
1.28

União de Leiria creates 11% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

creates per match

Leixoes
1.17
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

Leixoes
1.19
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw
61%
Leixoes or União de Leiria
73%
Draw or União de Leiria
67%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+
14%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals
68%
Leixoes 2+ goals
32%
Leixoes 3+ goals
11%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
72%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
37%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)
46%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 133 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.17 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Leixoes defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leixoes scores more
33%
level
27%
União de Leiria scores more
39%

União de Leiria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Leixoes 1–4 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Leixoes 4-1 in Segunda Liga on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.