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União de Leiria vs GIL Vicente — Taça de Portugal 2018

União de Leiria
União de Leiria
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
12/23/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

União de Leiria26%
×Draw26%
GIL Vicente48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Leiria
1.03
GIL Vicente
1.50

GIL Vicente creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

União de Leiria
1.44
GIL Vicente
1.77

allows per match

União de Leiria
1.22
GIL Vicente
0.62

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par
GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw
52%
União de Leiria or GIL Vicente
74%
Draw or GIL Vicente
74%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+
10%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals
64%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
28%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
9%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
78%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
44%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)
35%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.44 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.03

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + União de Leiria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

União de Leiria scores more
26%
level
26%
GIL Vicente scores more
48%

GIL Vicente at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: União de Leiria 0–3 GIL Vicente

GIL Vicente beat União de Leiria 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria.