União de Leiria 1–0 Condeixa: Result & Stats

União de Leiria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Condeixa

2/15/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 16Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

União de Leiria42%

×Draw33%

Condeixa25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de LeiriaExpected goals in this matchCondeixa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.70

União de Leiria

1.02

Condeixa

0.70

União de Leiria creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

0.40

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

União de Leiria

1.40

Condeixa

1.00

allows per match

União de Leiria

0.40

Condeixa

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Condeixa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Condeixa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw

75%

União de Leiria or Condeixa

67%

Draw or Condeixa

58%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+

17%

Condeixa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals

64%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

27%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

8%

Condeixa 1+ goals

50%

Condeixa 2+ goals

16%

Condeixa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

63%

Condeixa (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Condeixa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.40 + Condeixa defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.02

Condeixa attack 1.00 + União de Leiria defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

União de Leiria scores more

42%

level

33%

Condeixa scores more

25%

União de Leiria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff