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União de Leiria vs AVS — Segunda Liga 2018

União de Leiria
União de Leiria
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AVS
AVS
9/2/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 4Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

União de Leiria32%
×Draw25%
AVS43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Leiria
1.27
AVS
1.52

AVS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

União de Leiria
1.47
AVS
1.76

allows per match

União de Leiria
1.27
AVS
1.06

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw
57%
União de Leiria or AVS
75%
Draw or AVS
68%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+
14%
AVS wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals
72%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
36%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
14%
AVS 1+ goals
78%
AVS 2+ goals
45%
AVS 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)
42%
AVS (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

AVS away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.47 + AVS defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

AVS attack 1.76 + União de Leiria defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

União de Leiria scores more
32%
level
25%
AVS scores more
43%

AVS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União de Leiria vs AVS

AVS beat União de Leiria 2-1 in Segunda Liga on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria.