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União Carmolandense vs Sergipe — Serie D 2025

União Carmolandense
União Carmolandense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sergipe
Sergipe
Gustavo Gomes 90'
Jardisson 34'
6/14/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Carmolandense42%
×Draw29%
Sergipe29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Carmolandense
1.22
Sergipe
0.97

União Carmolandense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

União Carmolandense
1.29
Sergipe
1.23

allows per match

União Carmolandense
0.71
Sergipe
1.15

finishing

União Carmolandense+0.00on par
Sergipe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Carmolandense ↓

Sergipe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

União Carmolandense or draw
71%
União Carmolandense or Sergipe
71%
Draw or Sergipe
58%

Winning margin

União Carmolandense wins by 2+
18%
Sergipe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

União Carmolandense 1+ goals
70%
União Carmolandense 2+ goals
34%
União Carmolandense 3+ goals
12%
Sergipe 1+ goals
62%
Sergipe 2+ goals
25%
Sergipe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)
59%
Sergipe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Carmolandense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Sergipe away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Carmolandense attack 1.29 + Sergipe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sergipe attack 1.23 + União Carmolandense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

União Carmolandense scores more
42%
level
29%
Sergipe scores more
29%

União Carmolandense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "União Carmolandense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Jardisson
90'
Gustavo Gomes
União
Sergipe
Barbosa
Manager: Barbosa
Dico Woolley
Manager: Dico Woolley

Serie D: União Carmolandense 2–0 Sergipe

União Carmolandense beat Sergipe 2-0 in Serie D on June 14, 2025.

Goals: Jardisson (34'), Gustavo Gomes (90').

The match was played at Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda in Araguaína, Tocantins.