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União Carmolandense vs Juazeirense — Serie D 2018

União Carmolandense
União Carmolandense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Juazeirense
Juazeirense
Tiba 41'
6/28/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Carmolandense48%
×Draw29%
Juazeirense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Carmolandense
1.25
Juazeirense
0.76

União Carmolandense creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

creates per match

União Carmolandense
1.29
Juazeirense
0.80

allows per match

União Carmolandense
0.71
Juazeirense
1.20

finishing

União Carmolandense+0.00on par
Juazeirense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Carmolandense ↓

Juazeirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

União Carmolandense or draw
77%
União Carmolandense or Juazeirense
71%
Draw or Juazeirense
52%

Winning margin

União Carmolandense wins by 2+
22%
Juazeirense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

União Carmolandense 1+ goals
71%
União Carmolandense 2+ goals
36%
União Carmolandense 3+ goals
13%
Juazeirense 1+ goals
53%
Juazeirense 2+ goals
18%
Juazeirense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)
68%
Juazeirense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Carmolandense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Juazeirense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Carmolandense attack 1.29 + Juazeirense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Juazeirense attack 0.80 + União Carmolandense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

União Carmolandense scores more
48%
level
29%
Juazeirense scores more
23%

União Carmolandense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "União Carmolandense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Tiba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União Carmolandense vs Juazeirense

União Carmolandense beat Juazeirense 1-0 in Serie D on June 28, 2025.

Goals: Tiba (41').

The match was played at Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda in Araguaína, Tocantins.