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União Carmolandense vs Jequié — Serie D 2025

União Carmolandense
União Carmolandense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jequié
Jequié
P. H. Gomes Ananias 82' (pen)
7/12/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Carmolandense51%
×Draw26%
Jequié23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Carmolandense
1.50
Jequié
0.92

União Carmolandense creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

União Carmolandense
1.29
Jequié
1.14

allows per match

União Carmolandense
0.71
Jequié
1.71

finishing

União Carmolandense+0.00on par
Jequié+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Carmolandense ↓

Jequié →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

União Carmolandense or draw
77%
União Carmolandense or Jequié
74%
Draw or Jequié
49%

Winning margin

União Carmolandense wins by 2+
26%
Jequié wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

União Carmolandense 1+ goals
78%
União Carmolandense 2+ goals
44%
União Carmolandense 3+ goals
19%
Jequié 1+ goals
60%
Jequié 2+ goals
23%
Jequié 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)
69%
Jequié (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Carmolandense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Jequié away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Carmolandense attack 1.29 + Jequié defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jequié attack 1.14 + União Carmolandense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

União Carmolandense scores more
51%
level
26%
Jequié scores more
23%

União Carmolandense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "União Carmolandense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
P. H. Gomes AnaniasPenalty
União
Jequié
Barbosa
Manager: Barbosa
Alyson Dantas
Manager: Alyson Dantas

Match Recap: União Carmolandense vs Jequié

União Carmolandense beat Jequié 1-0 in Serie D on July 12, 2025.

Goals: P. H. Gomes Ananias (82' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda in Araguaína, Tocantins.