União Carmolandense 0–4 ASA: Result & Stats

União Carmolandense

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

ASA

Iarley 90'

Thiago Alagoano 47', 3'

Marcelo Toscano 34'

5/31/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Carmolandense34%

×Draw32%

ASA34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União CarmolandenseExpected goals in this matchASA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.93

União Carmolandense

0.94

ASA

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

0.71

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

União Carmolandense

1.29

ASA

1.16

allows per match

União Carmolandense

0.71

ASA

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Carmolandense+0.00on par

ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Carmolandense ↓

ASA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

União Carmolandense or draw

66%

União Carmolandense or ASA

68%

Draw or ASA

66%

Winning margin

União Carmolandense wins by 2+

12%

ASA wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

União Carmolandense 1+ goals

61%

União Carmolandense 2+ goals

24%

União Carmolandense 3+ goals

7%

ASA 1+ goals

61%

ASA 2+ goals

24%

ASA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)

50%

ASA (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Carmolandense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

ASA away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Carmolandense attack 1.29 + ASA defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.94

ASA attack 1.16 + União Carmolandense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

União Carmolandense scores more

34%

level

32%

ASA scores more

34%

União Carmolandense at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "União Carmolandense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

34'

47'

90'

União

ASA

⚽2

⚽

Manager: Barbosa

União Carmolandense substitutes

AfonsoJeffersonThalysonAlberioneBrasileiroVictorPanteraNegreirosAnanásHenriqueHenriqueElias

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

ASA substitutes

BarrosJailsonVianaXavierTibiriRamonFlávioJerfessonBahiaGabrielPapel

Match Recap: União Carmolandense vs ASA

ASA beat União Carmolandense 4-0 in Serie D on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Thiago Alagoano (3', 47'), Marcelo Toscano (34'), Iarley (90').

The match was played at Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda in Araguaína, Tocantins.

União Carmolandense vs ASA — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: União Carmolandense vs ASA