Unia Turza Śląska 0–2 Raków Częstochowa II

Unia Turza Śląska

FT

0 – 2

Raków Częstochowa II

3/30/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Turza Śląska33%

×Draw24%

Raków Częstochowa II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia Turza ŚląskaExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.65

Unia Turza Śląska

1.40

Raków Częstochowa II

1.65

Raków Częstochowa II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.09

creates per match

1.53

1.76

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Unia Turza Śląska

1.09

Raków Częstochowa II

1.53

allows per match

Unia Turza Śląska

1.76

Raków Częstochowa II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Turza Śląska ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Unia Turza Śląska or draw

57%

Unia Turza Śląska or Raków Częstochowa II

76%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa II

67%

Winning margin

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+

15%

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals

75%

Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals

41%

Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals

17%

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

81%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

49%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)

43%

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Turza Śląska at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.09 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unia Turza Śląska scores more

33%

level

24%

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

43%

Raków Częstochowa II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff