Unia Turza Śląska 1–2 Górnik Polkowice

Unia Turza Śląska

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

11/9/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Turza Śląska28%

×Draw24%

Górnik Polkowice48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia Turza ŚląskaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.66

Unia Turza Śląska

1.21

Górnik Polkowice

1.66

Górnik Polkowice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.09

creates per match

1.55

1.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Unia Turza Śląska

1.09

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Unia Turza Śląska

1.76

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Turza Śląska ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Unia Turza Śląska or draw

52%

Unia Turza Śląska or Górnik Polkowice

76%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

72%

Winning margin

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+

11%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals

70%

Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals

34%

Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals

12%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

81%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

49%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)

37%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Turza Śląska at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.09 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unia Turza Śląska scores more

28%

level

24%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

48%

Górnik Polkowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff