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Unia Turza Śląska vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Turza Śląska31%
×Draw25%
Goczałkowice Zdrój43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Turza Śląska
1.23
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.49

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 21% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.09
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.76
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Turza Śląska ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unia Turza Śląska or draw
57%
Unia Turza Śląska or Goczałkowice Zdrój
75%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
69%

Winning margin

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
13%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
71%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
35%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
13%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
77%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
44%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
42%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Turza Śląska at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.09 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unia Turza Śląska scores more
31%
level
25%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
43%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Unia Turza Śląska 1–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Unia Turza Śląska beat Goczałkowice Zdrój 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska in Turza Śląska.