Unia Tarnow 2–1 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Unia Tarnow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

5/14/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Unia Tarnow39%

×Draw23%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia TarnowExpected goals in this matchWólczanka W. Pełkińska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.66

Unia Tarnow

1.70

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 37 away

1.31

creates per match

1.38

1.94

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Unia Tarnow

1.31

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.38

allows per match

Unia Tarnow

1.94

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw

62%

Unia Tarnow or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

77%

Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

61%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+

20%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals

82%

Unia Tarnow 2+ goals

51%

Unia Tarnow 3+ goals

24%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

81%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

49%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)

51%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more

39%

level

23%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

38%

Unia Tarnow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unia Tarnow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff