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Unia Tarnow vs Tomasovia Tomaszów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
2 – 1
Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
9/18/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Tarnow43%
×Draw24%
Tomasovia Tomaszów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.66
Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.44

Unia Tarnow creates 15% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Tomasovia Tomaszów
0.94

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.00

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Tomasovia Tomaszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
67%
Unia Tarnow or Tomasovia Tomaszów
76%
Draw or Tomasovia Tomaszów
57%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
22%
Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
81%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
49%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
23%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
76%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
42%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
56%
Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 0.94 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
43%
level
24%
Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
33%

Unia Tarnow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unia Tarnow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Tarnow vs Tomasovia Tomaszów

Unia Tarnow beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.