Unia Tarnow 2–3 Star Starachowice: Result & Stats

Unia Tarnow

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Star Starachowice

11/4/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unia Tarnow30%

×Draw24%

Star Starachowice46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia TarnowExpected goals in this matchStar Starachowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.67

Unia Tarnow

1.29

Star Starachowice

1.67

Star Starachowice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

1.31

creates per match

1.41

1.94

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Unia Tarnow

1.31

Star Starachowice

1.41

allows per match

Unia Tarnow

1.94

Star Starachowice

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Star Starachowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw

54%

Unia Tarnow or Star Starachowice

76%

Draw or Star Starachowice

70%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+

13%

Star Starachowice wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals

72%

Unia Tarnow 2+ goals

37%

Unia Tarnow 3+ goals

14%

Star Starachowice 1+ goals

81%

Star Starachowice 2+ goals

50%

Star Starachowice 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)

39%

Star Starachowice (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more

30%

level

24%

Star Starachowice scores more

46%

Star Starachowice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff