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Unia Tarnow vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
9/2/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unia Tarnow38%
×Draw23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.60
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 70 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
61%
Unia Tarnow or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
77%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
62%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
19%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
80%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
47%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
22%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
80%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
48%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
49%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
38%
level
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
39%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Unia Tarnow 2–0 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Unia Tarnow beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.