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Unia Tarnow vs Karpaty Krosno — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
6/1/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Tarnow48%
×Draw22%
Karpaty Krosno30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.89
Karpaty Krosno
1.44

Unia Tarnow creates 31% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Karpaty Krosno
0.94

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Karpaty Krosno
2.47

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Karpaty Krosno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
70%
Unia Tarnow or Karpaty Krosno
78%
Draw or Karpaty Krosno
52%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
27%
Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
85%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
56%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
29%
Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
76%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
42%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
62%
Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.89

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
48%
level
22%
Karpaty Krosno scores more
30%

Unia Tarnow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unia Tarnow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Unia Tarnow 1–4 Karpaty Krosno

Karpaty Krosno beat Unia Tarnow 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.