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Unia Swarzędz vs Pogoń Szczecin II — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
4/12/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Unia Swarzędz43%
×Draw25%
Pogoń Szczecin II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.56
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.33

Unia Swarzędz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 104 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.58

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.61

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Pogoń Szczecin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
67%
Unia Swarzędz or Pogoń Szczecin II
75%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin II
57%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
21%
Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
79%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
46%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
21%
Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
74%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
38%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
57%
Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Pogoń Szczecin II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 1.58 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
43%
level
25%
Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
33%

Unia Swarzędz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Swarzędz vs Pogoń Szczecin II

Unia Swarzędz and Pogoń Szczecin II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.