Unia Swarzędz 0–1 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Unia Swarzędz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

P. Palat 85'

3/2/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Unia Swarzędz40%

×Draw26%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia SwarzędzExpected goals in this matchPogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.31

Unia Swarzędz

1.44

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.31

Unia Swarzędz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.52

creates per match

1.55

1.08

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz

1.52

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.55

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz

1.08

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw

66%

Unia Swarzędz or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

74%

Draw or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

60%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+

19%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals

76%

Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals

42%

Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals

18%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals

73%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals

38%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)

54%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.55 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more

40%

level

26%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more

34%

Unia Swarzędz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'

P. Palat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff