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Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
FT
1 – 2
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
10/12/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce36%
×Draw25%
Unia Swarzędz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.40
Unia Swarzędz
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.27
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.39
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or draw
61%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or Unia Swarzędz
75%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
64%

Winning margin

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+
17%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals
75%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals
41%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals
17%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
77%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
42%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)
49%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.27 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more
36%
level
25%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
39%

Unia Swarzędz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1 – 2 Unia Swarzędz

Unia Swarzędz beat Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach in Nowe Skalmierzyce.