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Unia Swarzędz vs Mieszko Gniezno — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
3 – 0
Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
4/17/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Swarzędz80%
×Draw13%
Mieszko Gniezno7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
2.88
Mieszko Gniezno
0.74

Unia Swarzędz creates 289% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Mieszko Gniezno
0.41

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Mieszko Gniezno
4.24

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
93%
Unia Swarzędz or Mieszko Gniezno
87%
Draw or Mieszko Gniezno
20%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
60%
Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
94%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
78%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
54%
Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
52%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
17%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
92%
Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.88

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
80%
level
13%
Mieszko Gniezno scores more
7%

Unia Swarzędz at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Swarzędz 3–0 Mieszko Gniezno

Unia Swarzędz beat Mieszko Gniezno 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.