Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unia Swarzędz vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
1 – 1
Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
5/1/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Swarzędz41%
×Draw26%
Gwardia Koszalin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.41
Gwardia Koszalin
1.22

Unia Swarzędz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Gwardia Koszalin
1.35

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Gwardia Koszalin
1.29

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
67%
Unia Swarzędz or Gwardia Koszalin
74%
Draw or Gwardia Koszalin
59%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
20%
Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
76%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
41%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
17%
Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
70%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
34%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
56%
Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
41%
level
26%
Gwardia Koszalin scores more
33%

Unia Swarzędz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Swarzędz vs Gwardia Koszalin

Unia Swarzędz and Gwardia Koszalin drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.