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Unia Swarzędz vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
0 – 2
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Swarzędz54%
×Draw24%
Górnik Konin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.67
Górnik Konin
0.95

Unia Swarzędz creates 76% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
79%
Unia Swarzędz or Górnik Konin
76%
Draw or Górnik Konin
46%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
29%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
81%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
50%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
23%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
61%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
25%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
72%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
54%
level
24%
Górnik Konin scores more
21%

Unia Swarzędz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Swarzędz vs Górnik Konin

Górnik Konin beat Unia Swarzędz 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.