Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unia Swarzędz vs Cartusia Kartuzy — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cartusia Kartuzy
Cartusia Kartuzy
11/11/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Unia Swarzędz47%
×Draw25%
Cartusia Kartuzy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.59
Cartusia Kartuzy
1.19

Unia Swarzędz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 59 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Cartusia Kartuzy
1.29

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Cartusia Kartuzy
1.66

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Cartusia Kartuzy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
71%
Unia Swarzędz or Cartusia Kartuzy
75%
Draw or Cartusia Kartuzy
53%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
24%
Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
80%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
47%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
21%
Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals
70%
Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals
33%
Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
62%
Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Cartusia Kartuzy away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.29 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
47%
level
25%
Cartusia Kartuzy scores more
29%

Unia Swarzędz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Swarzędz 1–0 Cartusia Kartuzy

Unia Swarzędz beat Cartusia Kartuzy 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.