Cartusia Kartuzy 1–2 Unia Swarzędz: Result & Stats

Cartusia Kartuzy

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Unia Swarzędz

5/30/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Cartusia Kartuzy40%

×Draw25%

Unia Swarzędz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartusia KartuzyExpected goals in this matchUnia Swarzędz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.35

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.46

Unia Swarzędz

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 84 away

1.39

creates per match

1.51

1.19

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.39

Unia Swarzędz

1.51

allows per match

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.19

Unia Swarzędz

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartusia Kartuzy ↓

Unia Swarzędz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cartusia Kartuzy or draw

65%

Cartusia Kartuzy or Unia Swarzędz

75%

Draw or Unia Swarzędz

60%

Winning margin

Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+

19%

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals

77%

Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals

43%

Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals

18%

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals

74%

Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals

39%

Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)

53%

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartusia Kartuzy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.39 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cartusia Kartuzy scores more

40%

level

25%

Unia Swarzędz scores more

35%

Cartusia Kartuzy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cartusia Kartuzy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff