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Unia Skierniewice vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
3/18/2026II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Skierniewice51%
×Draw23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
1.87
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.29

Unia Skierniewice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
2.18
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.53
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
74%
Unia Skierniewice or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
77%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
49%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
85%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
56%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
72%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
37%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 2.18 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.87

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
51%
level
23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
26%

Unia Skierniewice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Skierniewice vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Unia Skierniewice beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-2 in II Liga - East on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Skierniewice.