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Unia Skierniewice vs Victoria Sulejówek — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
8/12/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Boisko Nieborów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Skierniewice52%
×Draw22%
Victoria Sulejówek26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
1.90
Victoria Sulejówek
1.27

Unia Skierniewice creates 50% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Victoria Sulejówek
1.91

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
74%
Unia Skierniewice or Victoria Sulejówek
78%
Draw or Victoria Sulejówek
48%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
30%
Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
85%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
56%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
29%
Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
72%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
36%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
67%
Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
52%
level
22%
Victoria Sulejówek scores more
26%

Unia Skierniewice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Unia Skierniewice 0–1 Victoria Sulejówek

Victoria Sulejówek beat Unia Skierniewice 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Boisko Nieborów in Nieborów.