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Unia Skierniewice vs Puszcza Niepołomice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
0 – 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
1/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Unia Skierniewice68%
×Draw18%
Puszcza Niepołomice15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
2.44
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.05

Unia Skierniewice creates 132% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
2.50
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.23

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
0.88
Puszcza Niepołomice
2.38

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
85%
Unia Skierniewice or Puszcza Niepołomice
82%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
32%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
45%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
91%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
70%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
43%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
65%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
28%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
82%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 2.50 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.44

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.23 + Unia Skierniewice defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
68%
level
18%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
15%

Unia Skierniewice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Unia Skierniewice 0–0 Puszcza Niepołomice

Unia Skierniewice and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach in Skierniewice.