Unia Skierniewice 0–1 Łomża: Result & Stats

Unia Skierniewice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Łomża

4/4/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unia Skierniewice39%

×Draw24%

Łomża37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia SkierniewiceExpected goals in this matchŁomża

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.52

Unia Skierniewice

1.56

Łomża

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

1.89

creates per match

1.76

1.28

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice

1.89

Łomża

1.76

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice

1.28

Łomża

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Łomża+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Łomża →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw

63%

Unia Skierniewice or Łomża

76%

Draw or Łomża

61%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+

19%

Łomża wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals

79%

Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals

46%

Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals

21%

Łomża 1+ goals

78%

Łomża 2+ goals

45%

Łomża 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)

51%

Łomża (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Łomża away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Łomża defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

Łomża attack 1.76 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more

39%

level

24%

Łomża scores more

37%

Unia Skierniewice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff