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Unia Skierniewice vs Kutno — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
1 – 2
Kutno
Kutno
9/8/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Unia Skierniewice48%
×Draw23%
Kutno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
1.82
Kutno
1.36

Unia Skierniewice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 36 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Kutno
1.44

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Kutno
1.75

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Kutno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
71%
Unia Skierniewice or Kutno
77%
Draw or Kutno
52%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
26%
Kutno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
84%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
54%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
27%
Kutno 1+ goals
74%
Kutno 2+ goals
39%
Kutno 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
63%
Kutno (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kutno attack 1.44 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
48%
level
23%
Kutno scores more
29%

Unia Skierniewice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Kutno

Kutno beat Unia Skierniewice 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach in Skierniewice.