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Unia Skierniewice vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
1 – 1
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
4/12/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Boisko Nieborów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unia Skierniewice61%
×Draw20%
Concordia Elbląg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
2.23
Concordia Elbląg
1.16

Unia Skierniewice creates 92% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
81%
Unia Skierniewice or Concordia Elbląg
80%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
39%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
39%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
89%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
65%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
38%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
69%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
32%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
76%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
61%
level
20%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
19%

Unia Skierniewice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Skierniewice vs Concordia Elbląg

Unia Skierniewice and Concordia Elbląg drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 12, 2023.

The match was played at Boisko Nieborów in Nieborów.