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Unia Skierniewice vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
3/12/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Unia Skierniewice48%
×Draw23%
Błonianka Błonie29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
1.76
Błonianka Błonie
1.33

Unia Skierniewice creates 32% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 52 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
71%
Unia Skierniewice or Błonianka Błonie
77%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
52%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
26%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
83%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
52%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
26%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
74%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
38%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
62%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
48%
level
23%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
29%

Unia Skierniewice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Skierniewice vs Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Unia Skierniewice 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach in Skierniewice.