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Unia Janikowo vs Solec K. — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Janikowo
Unia Janikowo
FT
0 – 1
Solec K.
Solec K.
11/19/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Janikowo55%
×Draw22%
Solec K.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Janikowo
1.90
Solec K.
1.15

Unia Janikowo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

creates per match

Unia Janikowo
1.67
Solec K.
1.18

allows per match

Unia Janikowo
1.12
Solec K.
2.12

finishing

Unia Janikowo+0.00on par
Solec K.+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Janikowo ↓

Solec K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Unia Janikowo or draw
77%
Unia Janikowo or Solec K.
78%
Draw or Solec K.
45%

Winning margin

Unia Janikowo wins by 2+
31%
Solec K. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unia Janikowo 1+ goals
85%
Unia Janikowo 2+ goals
56%
Unia Janikowo 3+ goals
29%
Solec K. 1+ goals
68%
Solec K. 2+ goals
32%
Solec K. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)
71%
Solec K. (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Janikowo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Solec K. away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Janikowo attack 1.67 + Solec K. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

Solec K. attack 1.18 + Unia Janikowo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Unia Janikowo scores more
55%
level
22%
Solec K. scores more
23%

Unia Janikowo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Janikowo 0–1 Solec K.

Solec K. beat Unia Janikowo 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Janikowo.