Unia Janikowo 2–1 Nielba Wągrowiec: Result & Stats

Unia Janikowo

FT

2 – 1

Nielba Wągrowiec

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Janikowo39%

×Draw23%

Nielba Wągrowiec38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia JanikowoExpected goals in this matchNielba Wągrowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.68

Unia Janikowo

1.71

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

2.24

1.12

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Unia Janikowo

1.67

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.24

allows per match

Unia Janikowo

1.12

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Janikowo+0.00on par

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Janikowo ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Unia Janikowo or draw

62%

Unia Janikowo or Nielba Wągrowiec

77%

Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec

61%

Winning margin

Unia Janikowo wins by 2+

20%

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Unia Janikowo 1+ goals

82%

Unia Janikowo 2+ goals

51%

Unia Janikowo 3+ goals

24%

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals

81%

Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals

50%

Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)

51%

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Janikowo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Janikowo attack 1.67 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Unia Janikowo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unia Janikowo scores more

39%

level

23%

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more

38%

Unia Janikowo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff