Unia Janikowo 5–0 Mieszko Gniezno: Result & Stats

Unia Janikowo

FT

5 – 0

Mieszko Gniezno

5/22/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Janikowo81%

×Draw12%

Mieszko Gniezno7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia JanikowoExpected goals in this matchMieszko Gniezno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

0.77

Unia Janikowo

2.96

Mieszko Gniezno

0.77

Unia Janikowo creates 284% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

0.41

1.12

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Unia Janikowo

1.67

Mieszko Gniezno

0.41

allows per match

Unia Janikowo

1.12

Mieszko Gniezno

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Janikowo+0.00on par

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Janikowo ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Unia Janikowo or draw

93%

Unia Janikowo or Mieszko Gniezno

88%

Draw or Mieszko Gniezno

19%

Winning margin

Unia Janikowo wins by 2+

61%

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Unia Janikowo 1+ goals

95%

Unia Janikowo 2+ goals

79%

Unia Janikowo 3+ goals

55%

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals

54%

Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals

18%

Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)

92%

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Janikowo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Janikowo attack 1.67 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.96

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Unia Janikowo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Unia Janikowo scores more

81%

level

12%

Mieszko Gniezno scores more

7%

Unia Janikowo at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff