Unia Janikowo 5–2 Gwardia Koszalin: Result & Stats

Unia Janikowo

FT

5 – 2

Gwardia Koszalin

6/26/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Janikowo43%

×Draw26%

Gwardia Koszalin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia JanikowoExpected goals in this matchGwardia Koszalin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.24

Unia Janikowo

1.48

Gwardia Koszalin

1.24

Unia Janikowo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.35

1.12

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Unia Janikowo

1.67

Gwardia Koszalin

1.35

allows per match

Unia Janikowo

1.12

Gwardia Koszalin

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Janikowo+0.00on par

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Janikowo ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Unia Janikowo or draw

68%

Unia Janikowo or Gwardia Koszalin

74%

Draw or Gwardia Koszalin

57%

Winning margin

Unia Janikowo wins by 2+

21%

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Unia Janikowo 1+ goals

77%

Unia Janikowo 2+ goals

43%

Unia Janikowo 3+ goals

19%

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals

71%

Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals

35%

Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)

57%

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Janikowo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Janikowo attack 1.67 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Unia Janikowo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unia Janikowo scores more

43%

level

26%

Gwardia Koszalin scores more

32%

Unia Janikowo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff