Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unia Janikowo vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Janikowo
Unia Janikowo
FT
2 – 0
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
10/24/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Janikowo67%
×Draw18%
Chemik Police15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Janikowo
2.33
Chemik Police
1.00

Unia Janikowo creates 133% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Janikowo
1.67
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Unia Janikowo
1.12
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Unia Janikowo+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Janikowo ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Unia Janikowo or draw
85%
Unia Janikowo or Chemik Police
82%
Draw or Chemik Police
33%

Winning margin

Unia Janikowo wins by 2+
44%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Unia Janikowo 1+ goals
90%
Unia Janikowo 2+ goals
67%
Unia Janikowo 3+ goals
41%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
63%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
26%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)
82%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Janikowo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Janikowo attack 1.67 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Unia Janikowo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Unia Janikowo scores more
67%
level
18%
Chemik Police scores more
15%

Unia Janikowo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Janikowo 2–0 Chemik Police

Unia Janikowo beat Chemik Police 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Janikowo.